Objective To investigate the clinical value of enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based deep learning model in preoperative prediction of proliferative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
Methods The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinical data of 906 HCC patients who were admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University and The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from May 2017 to October 2022 were collected. There were 769 males and 137 females, aged (53.2±10.9)years. Of the 906 patients, 815 cases who were admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University were divided into the training set of 634 patients and the internal validation set of 181 patients using a random number table method with a ratio of 8:2, and 91 patients who were admitted to The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were divided into the external validation set. The training set was used to construct the prediction model, while the validation set was used to validate the prediction model. Observation indicators: (1) analysis of factors influencing the pathological classification of HCC patients; (2) deep learning imaging features of HCC patients; (3) evaluation of the efficacy of prediction model for proliferative HCC; (4) validation of the prediction model for proliferative HCC; (5) prognosis of HCC patients. Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the independent sample t test. Comparison of measurement data with skewed distribution between groups was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Comparison of count data between groups was conducted using the chi-square test. Multivariate analysis was conducted using the binary Logistic regression model. The model perfor-mance was evaluated through five-fold cross-validation, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to assess the diagnostic value of the model based on the area under curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. The Delong test was used to compare the diagnostic performance of models. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was employed to evaluate the calibration of models. The optimal cutoff value of the prediction model was determined by the maximum Youden index, with the value >0.175 indicating high-risk patients and value ≤0.175 indicating low-risk patients.The Kaplan‑Meier method was used to calculate the survival rate and the Log-rank test was used for survival analysis.
Results (1) Analysis of factors influencing the pathological classification of HCC patients. Of 634 patients in the training set, there were 190 cases of proliferative HCC and 444 cases of non-proliferative HCC. Results of multivariate analysis showed that alpha fetoprotein (AFP) ≥400 μg/L and tumor diameter >5 cm were independent risk factors for pathological type of HCC as proli-ferative odds ratio=1.73, 1.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) as 1.19-2.50, 1.30-2.71, P<0.05. (2) Deep learning imaging features of HCC patients. In the training set of 634 patients, the probability predicted by MRI-based deep learning model was 84.8%(30.5%,95.4%) for proliferative HCC and 5.8%(3.2%,12.5%) for non-proliferative HCC, showing a significant difference between them (Z=-16.01, P<0.05). (3) Evaluation of the efficacy of prediction model for proliferative HCC. In the training set, the AUC of clinical prediction model for proliferative HCC was 0.63(95%CI as 0.59-0.68, P<0.05), with sensitivity of 54.74% and specificity of 64.19%. The AUC of MRI-based deep learning prediction model was 0.90(95%CI as 0.87-0.93, P<0.05), with sensitivity of 80.53% and specificity of 86.94%. The AUC of combined MRI-based deep learning with clinical prediction model was 0.90 (95%CI as 0.87-0.93, P<0.05), with sensitivity of 83.16% and specificity of 86.04%. Results of Delong test showed that there was a significant difference between the combined MRI-based deep learning with clinical prediction model and the clinical prediction model (P<0.05), and there was no signifi-cant difference between the combined MRI-based deep learning with clinical prediction model and the MRI-based deep learning prediction model (P>0.05). Results of Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good calibration for the clinical prediction model, the MRI-based deep learning prediction model and the combined MRI-based deep learning with clinical prediction model (χ²=0.84, 6.38, 3.93, P>0.05), indicating that the predicted probabilities of these three prediction models matched the actual risk well. (4) Validation of the prediction model for proliferative HCC. Results of validation of the prediction model in internal validation set showed the AUC of MRI-based deep learning prediction model for proliferative HCC was 0.84(95%CI as 0.77-0.91, P<0.05), with sensitivity of 82.35% and specificity of 77.69%. Results of validation of the prediction model in external validation set showed the AUC of MRI-based deep learning prediction model for proliferative HCC was 0.81(95%CI as 0.71-0.92, P<0.05), with sensitivity of 70.00% and specificity of 81.69%. (5) Prognosis of HCC patients. Of the 906 patients, the 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival rates for 645 proliferative HCC patients were 56.9%, 31.4%, and 29.1%, respectively, and the 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival rates for 261 non-proliferative HCC patients were 88.8%, 68.6%, and 56.0%, respectively. There were significant differences in recurrence-free survival time between proliferative HCC and non-proliferative HCC patients of the training set, internal validation set and external validation set (P<0.05). The 1-, 3-, 5-year recurrence-free survival rates for 331 high-risk HCC patients were 64.6%, 50.4%, 43.6%, versus 88.5%, 71.9%, 62.7% for 575 low-risk HCC patients. There were significant differences in recurrence-free survival time between high-risk HCC patients and low-risk HCC patients of the training set, internal validation set and external validation set (P<0.05).
Conclusion The MRI-based deep learning model can effectively predict proliferative HCC and recurrence-free survival of patients before the surgery.
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