成人首次肝移植术后早期预后分析

Early prognosis judgment in adult recipients after first liver transplantation

  • 摘要: 目的 应用逐步判别分析法对成人首次肝移植术后早期(术后90d内)预后进行判断,筛选出预后的主要影响因素。方法 回顾性分析2004年8月至2011年2月南方医科大学南方医院施行的 221例肝移植患者的临床资料,将符合研究条件的218例患者分为训练样本(2004年8月至2010年6月, 188例)和验证样本(2010年7月至2011年2月,30例)。根据术后患者的生存情况,将患者分为死亡组 (术后生存时间≤90d,34例)和生存组(术后生存时间>90d,184例)。用逐步判别分析法对单因素分析有统计学意义的相关因素进行研究,建立早期预后的判断函数并分析主要影响因素。计量资料采用t检验或秩和检验,计数资料采用R×C表的χ2检验或Fisher确切概率法。结果 死亡组与生存组受者平均年龄分别为(54±11)岁和(51±11)岁,两组比较,差异无统计学意义(t=-1.681,P>0.05);术前平均Hb 分别为106.7g/L和119.2g/L,两组比较,差异有统计学意义(t=2.809,P<0.05)。两组患者的肌酐、尿素氮、Alb、TBil、IBil、Na+、PT、活化部分凝血活酶时间、国际标准化比值、纤维蛋白原、凝血酶原活动度、 PLT、营养危险指数、终末期肝病模型评分、术前肝性脑病、术前肝肾综合征、术前消化道出血、术前感染、术前糖尿病、ChildTurcottePugh肝功能分级、心功能分级、麻醉危险度分级、手术时间、无肝期时间、术中输血量、腹腔积液量以及术中尿量比较,差异有统计学意义(Z=-2.277,-2.595,-3.290,-3.486,-2.562, -2.577,-3.670,-3.882,-3.625,-3.557,-3.837,-1.974,-3.693,-3.815,χ2=19.632,9.756,28.143, Z=-4.175,-3.905,-4.865,-3.564,-5.822,P<0.05)。影响成人首次肝移植术后早期预后的主要因素为术前肝性脑病、术前肝肾综合征、手术时间、术中输血量和术中尿量。其标准偏回归系数分别为0.146、 0.188、0.257、0.181、-0.340。用判别函数对训练样本进行回顾性考核判断正确率为89.9%(169/188), 验证样本前瞻性考核判别正确率为90.0%(27/30)。结论 根据患者手术时间、术中输血量、术中尿量以及术前是否合并肝性脑病和肝肾综合征,可在很大程度上预测成人首次肝移植早期预后。

     

    Abstract:

    Objective To judge the prognosis of adult recipients after first liver transplantation by stepwise discriminant analysis, and screen out the main influencing factors. Methods The clinical data of 221 patients who received liver transplantation at the Nanfang Hospital of Southern Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 218 patients who met the criteria were divided into the training samples (188 patients admitted from August 2004 to June 2010) and checking samples (30 patients admitted from July 2010 to February 2011), and then all patients were re divided into dead group (survival time≤90 days, 34 patients) and surviving group (survival time>90 days, 184 patients). Factors which had significant difference after the univariate analysis was further analyzed by the stepwise discriminant analysis method. All data were analyzed by the t test, rank sum test, chi square test or Fisher exact probability test. Results The ages of the recipients in the dead group and the living group were (54±11)years and (51±11)years, respectively, with no significant difference between the 2 groups ( t= -2.277,-2.595,-3.290,-3.486,-2.562,-2.577,-3.670,-3.882,-3.625,-3.557,-3.837,-1.974, -3.693, -3.815, χ 2=19.632, 9.756, 28.143, Z =〖KG-*3〗-4.175,-3.905,-4.865,-3.564,-5.822, P <0.05). Preoperative HE, preoperative HRS, duration of operation, intraoperative blood transfusion and intraoperative volume of urine were the independent influencing factors of early prognosis after liver transplantation. The standardized partial regression coefficients were 0.146, 0.188, 0.257, 0.181, -0.340, 89.9%(169/188) of the training samples and 90.0%(27/30) of the checking samples were correctly classified. Conclusion Based on factors including HRS, HE, intraoperative blood transfusion, intraoperative volume of urine and duration of operation, the early prognosis can be judged in adult recipients after first liver transplantation.

     

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