Objective To investigate the predictive value of tumor morphology in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) immunotherapy.

Methods The propensity score matching and retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinical data of 227 HCC patients who underwent immunotherapy in The First Affiliated Hospital of University of Science and Technology of China from January 2021 to December 2023 were collected. There were 203 males and 24 females, aged (57±11)years. Of the 227 patients, 93 patients with regular tumor morphology of HCC evaluated by computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were divided into the regular morphology group, and 134 patients with irregular tumor morphology of HCC evaluated by CT or MRI were divided into the irregular morphology group. Observation indicators: (1) propensity score matching and comparison of general data of patients between the two groups after matching; (2) analysis of factors affecting prognosis of patients; (3) prognosis of patients after propensity score matching. Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the independent sample t test. Comparison of count data between groups was conducted using the chi-square test. Comparison of ordinal data was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival rate and draw survival curve. The Log-rank test was used for survival analysis. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used for univariate and multivariate analyses. Propensity score matching was done by the 1∶1 nearest neighbor matching method, with a caliper value of 0.02.

Results (1) Propensity score matching and comparison of general data of patients between the two groups after matching. Of 227 HCC patients undergoing immunotherapy, 164 cases were successfully matched, including 82 cases in the regular morphology group and 82 cases in the irregular morphology group. After propensity score matching, the elimination of patients who underwent radical surgical resection in the past, tumor number and alpha fetoprotein confounding bias ensured comparability between the two groups. (2) Analysis of factors affecting prognosis of patients. Results of multivariate analysis showed that body mass index ≥25 kg/m² and irregular tumor morphology were independent risk factors affecting overall survival time of patients (hazard ratio=0.891, 1.870, 95% confidence interval as 0.825-0.963, 1.151-3.038, P < 0.05). (3) Prognosis of patients after propensity score matching. After propensity score matching, the median progression-free survival time was 11.9(95% confidence interval as 9.2-16.1)months for patients in the regular tumor morphology group and 6.4(95% confidence interval as 4.4-8.1)months for patients in the irregular tumor morphology group, the 1-year progress-free survival rate was 48.48% for patients in the regular tumor morphology group and 22.25% for patients in the irregular tumor morphology group. There was a significant difference in progress-free survival between patients in the regular tumor morphology group and the irregular tumor morphology group (χ²=16.000, P < 0.05). The median overall survival time was 27.2(95% confidence interval as 23.7-not reached)months for patients in the regular tumor morphology group and 18.1 (95% confidence interval as 15.8-20.8)months for patients in the regular tumor morphology group, the 1-year overall survival rate was 83.27% for patients in the regular tumor morphology group and 66.98% for patients in the irregular tumor morphology group. There was a significant difference in overall survival between patients in the regular tumor morphology group and the irregular tumor morphology group (χ²=13.400, P < 0.05).

Conclusions Tumor morphology has a predictive value for the efficacy of immunotherapy for HCC. Compared with HCC patients of regular tumor morphology, immunotherapy is less effective in patients with irregular tumor morphology.