影响达芬奇机器人手术系统胃癌根治术手术时间延长预测模型的构建及其应用价值

Construction and application value of a predictive model for prolonged surgical duration in Da Vinci robotic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer

  • 摘要:
    目的 探讨影响达芬奇机器人手术系统胃癌根治术手术时间延长预测模型的构建及其应用价值。
    方法 采用回顾性队列研究方法。收集2016年8月至2021年8月福建医科大学附属协和医院收治的534例行达芬奇机器人手术系统胃癌根治术患者的临床病理资料;男389例,女145例;年龄为(60±11)岁。534例患者通过SPSS 25.0软件按随机数法以7∶3比例随机分为训练集374例和验证集160例。观察指标:(1)患者手术时间延长情况。(2)手术时间延长和未延长患者术中及术后情况。(3)手术时间延长和未延长患者并发症发生情况。(4)影响患者手术时间延长危险因素分析。(5)手术时间延长人工神经网络预测模型的构建及其预测效能评价。正态分布的计量资料以x±s表示,组间比较采用独立样本t检验。偏态分布的计量资料以MQ1,Q3)表示,组间比较采用Mann‑Whitney U检验。计数资料以绝对数和百分比表示,组间比较采用χ²检验或Fisher确切概率法。等级资料比较采用非参数检验。单因素和多因素分析采用Logistic回归模型。基于单因素分析结果,采用多层感知器训练手术时间延长人工神经网络预测模型,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线,以曲线下面积(AUC)、准确率、灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值评价预测模型的效能。
    结果 (1)患者手术时间延长情况。534例患者中,行全胃切除术和远端胃切除术分别为284、250例,手术时间分别为(206±42)min、(187±36)min。行全胃切除术手术时间延长和未延长患者分别为41、243例,行远端胃切除术手术时间延长和未延长患者分别为40、210例。81例手术时间延长患者性别(男、女),年龄,体质量指数(BMI),肿瘤长径,肿瘤位置(胃上部、胃中部、胃下部、混合型),新辅助治疗,术前美国麻醉医师协会(ASA)评分(1分、2分、3分),临床T分期(T1期、T2期、T3期、T4a期),临床N分期(N0期、N1期、N2期、N3期),临床TNM分期(Ⅰ期、Ⅱ期、Ⅲ期),手术切除范围(全胃切除、远端胃切除),消化道重建方式(Billroth‑Ⅰ吻合、Billroth‑Ⅱ吻合、Roux‑en‑Y吻合),术者经验(≤20例、>20例)分别为61、20例,(61±9)岁,(24±3)kg/m2,4.0(2.5,5.0)cm,34、10、33、4例,1例、3、73、5例,3、6、26、46例,14、41、19、7例,5、13、63例,41、40例,1、33、47例,5、76例,453例手术时间未延长患者上述指标分别为328、125例,(60±11)岁,(23±3)kg/m2,3.5(2.0,5.0)cm,129、71、227、26例,6例、45、382、26例,73、100、118、162例,211、180、52、10例,138、108、207例,243、210例,13、200、240例,15、438例;两者BMI、临床T分期、临床N分期、临床TNM分期比较,差异均有统计学意义(t=-3.68,Z=-4.63、-5.53、-5.56,P<0.05);性别、年龄、肿瘤长径、肿瘤位置、术前ASA评分、手术切除范围、消化道重建方式、术者经验比较,差异均无统计学意义(χ²=0.29,t=-0.95,Z=-1.27,χ²=5.92,Z=-1.46,χ²=0.25、1.35、0.87,P>0.05),新辅助治疗比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。(2)手术时间延长和未延长患者术中及术后情况。81例手术时间延长患者手术时间、术中出血量、淋巴结清扫数目、术后首次下床活动时间、术后首次肛门排气时间、术后首次进食流质食物时间、术后首次进食半流质食物时间、术后住院时间分别为(261±34)min、50(30,50)mL、(39±15)枚、(2.3±0.6)d、(3.4±0.9)d、(4.1±1.2)d、(5.7±1.2)d、8.0(7.0,9.0)d;453例手术时间未延长患者上述指标分别为(186±29)min、30(20,50)mL、(42±14)枚、(2.2±0.6)d、(3.4±0.8)d、(4.1±1.1)d、(5.7±1.4)d、8.0(7.0,9.0)d;两者手术时间、术中出血量比较,差异均有统计学意义(t=-20.46,Z=-3.32,P<0.05);淋巴结清扫数目、术后首次下床活动时间、术后首次肛门排气时间、术后首次进食流质食物时间、术后首次进食半流质食物时间、术后住院时间比较,差异均无统计学意义(t=1.87、-0.87、-0.16、0.28、0.03,Z=-1.45,P>0.05)。(3)手术时间延长和未延长患者并发症发生情况。81例手术时间延长患者总并发症发生率,外科并发症(腹腔感染、吻合口瘘、腹腔出血、切口相关并发症、肠梗阻、淋巴瘘)发生率,内科并发症(肺部感染、肝脏相关并发症)发生率分别为22.22%(18/81),0、0、2.47%(2/81)、0、8.64%(7/81)、1.23%(1/81),12.35%(10/81)、1.23%(1/81);453例手术时间未延长患者上述指标分别为13.47%(61/453),2.65%(12/453)、0.44%(2/453)、1.77%(8/453)、0.44%(2/453)、3.31%(15/453)、0,7.28%(33/453)、1.55%(7/453);两者总并发症发生率比较,差异有统计学意义(χ²=4.18,P<0.05),腹腔感染、吻合口瘘、腹腔出血、切口相关并发症、肠梗阻、淋巴瘘、肝脏相关并发症发生率比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05),肺部感染比较,差异无统计学意义(χ²=2.38,P>0.05)。(4)影响患者手术时间延长危险因素分析。单因素分析结果显示:BMI≥25 kg/m2、肿瘤位置为胃下部、临床T分期为T3~T4a期、临床N分期为N1~N3期是影响达芬奇机器人手术系统胃癌根治术手术时间延长的相关因素(优势比=1.88,0.40,6.24,6.51,3.08,3.39,17.15,95%可信区间为1.03~3.42,0.21~0.76,1.40~27.76,1.50~28.30,1.43~6.60,1.29~8.92,4.84~60.74,P<0.05)。多因素分析结果显示:BMI≥25 kg/m2、临床T分期为T3期、临床N分期为N3期是影响达芬奇机器人手术系统胃癌根治术手术时间延长的独立危险因素(优势比=2.31,4.97,11.08,95%可信区间为1.19~4.46,1.05~23.55,2.72~45.13,P<0.05)。(5)手术时间延长人工神经网络预测模型的构建及其预测效能评价。将BMI、肿瘤位置、临床T分期、临床N分期导入多层感知器构建手术时间延长人工神经网络预测模型。ROC曲线结果显示:训练集中,预测模型的AUC、准确率、灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值分别为0.73(95%可信区间为0.68~0.78)、91.4%、68.1%、94.8%、65.3%、95.4%;验证集中,预测模型的上述指标分别为0.72(95%可信区间为0.65~0.79)、88.1%、67.6%、93.7%、74.2%、91.5%。
    结论 BMI≥25 kg/m2、临床T分期为T3期、临床N分期为N3期是影响达芬奇机器人手术系统胃癌根治术手术时间延长的独立危险因素。基于BMI、肿瘤位置、临床T分期、临床N分期构建的人工神经网络预测模型可较好预测芬奇机器人手术系统胃癌根治术手术时间延长的高危患者。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To investigate the construction and application value of a predictive model for prolonged surgical duration in Da Vinci robotic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer.
    Methods The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 534 patients who underwent Da Vinci robotic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer in the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital from August 2016 to August 2021 were collected. There were 389 males and 145 females, aged (60±11)years. All 534 patients were randomly divided into the training dataset of 374 cases and the validation dataset of 160 cases with a ratio of 7∶3 based on random number method in the SPSS 25.0 software. Observation indicators: (1) incidence of prolonged surgical duration; (2) intraoperative and postoperative conditions in patients with prolonged surgical duration and without prolonged surgical duration; (3) complications in patients with prolonged surgical duration and without prolonged surgical duration; (4) analysis of risk factors influencing prolonged surgical duration; (5) construction and evaluation of an artificial neural network predictive model for pro-longed surgical duration. Measurement data with normal distribution were represented as Mean±SD, and comparison between groups was conducted using the independent sample t test. Measurement data with skewed distribution were represented as M(Q1,Q3), and comparison between groups was conducted using the Mann‑Whitney U test. Count data were described as absolute numbers or per-centages, and comparison between groups was conducted using the chi‑square test or Fisher exact probability. Comparison of ordinal data was analyzed using the nonparametric test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using the Logistic regression model. Based on the results of univariate analysis, a multilayer perceptron was employed to train an artificial neural network pre-dictive model for prolonged surgical duration. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn, and the area under curve (AUC), the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were used to assess the model′s performance.
    Results (1) Incidence of prolonged surgical duration. Of 534 patients, 284 cases underwent total gastrectomy, and 250 cases underwent distal gastrectomy, with operation time of (206±42)minutes and (187±36)minutes, res-pectively. Cases with prolonged surgical duration and without prolonged surgical duration who under-went total gastrectomy were 41 and 243, and cases with prolonged surgical duration and without prolonged surgical duration who underwent distal gastrectomy were 40 and 210. The gender (male, female), age, body mass index (BMI), tumor diameter, tumor location (upper stomach, middle stomach, lower stomach, mixed type), cases with neoadjuvant therapy, cases with preoperative American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score as 1, 2, 3, cases with clinical T staging as stage T1, stage T2, stage T3, stage T4a, cases with clinical N staging as stage N0, stage N1, stage N2, stage N3, cases with clinical TNM staging as stage Ⅰ, stage Ⅱ, stage Ⅲ, cases with surgical resection scope as total gastrec-tomy or distal gastrectomy, cases with digestive tract reconstruction method as Billroth‑Ⅰ anasto-mosis, Billroth‑Ⅱ anastomosis, Roux‑en‑Y anastomosis, cases with surgeon experiences as ≤20 cases or >20 cases were 61,20, (61±9)years, (24±3)kg/m², 4.0(2.5, 5.0)cm, 34, 10, 33, 4, 1, 3, 73, 5, 3, 6, 26, 46, 14, 41, 19, 7, 5, 13, 63, 41, 40, 1, 33, 47, 5, 76 in the 81 patients with prolonged surgical duration, versus 328, 125, (60±11)years, (23±3)kg/m², 3.5(2.0, 5.0)cm, 129, 71, 227, 26, 6, 45, 382, 26, 73, 100, 118, 162, 211, 180, 52, 10, 138, 108,207, 243, 210, 13,200, 240, 15, 438 in the 453 patients without prolonged surgical duration, showing significant differences in the BMI, clinical T staging, clinical N staging, clinical TNM staging (t=-3.68, Z=-4.63, -5.53, -5.56, P<0.05), and no significant difference in the gender, age, tumor diameter, tumor location, preoperative ASA score, surgical resec-tion scope, digestive tract reconstruction method, and surgeon experiences (χ²=0.29, t=-0.95, Z=-1.27, χ²=5.92, Z=-1.46, χ²=0.25, 1.35, 0.87, P>0.05). There was no significant difference in cases with neoadjuvant therapy between them (P>0.05). (2) Intraoperative and postoperative conditions in patients with prolonged surgical duration and without prolonged surgical duration. The operation time, volume of intraoperative blood loss, the number of lymph nodes dissected, time to postopera-tive first ambulation, time to postoperative anal exhaust, time to postoperative first intake of liquid diet, time to postoperative first intake of semi‑liquid diet, duration of postoperative hospital stay were (261±34)minutes, 50(30, 50)mL, 39±15, (2.3±0.6)days, (3.4±0.9)days, (4.1±1.2)days, (5.7±1.2)days, 8.0(7.0, 9.0)days in the 81 patients with prolonged surgical duration, versus (186±29)minutes, 30(20,50)mL, 42±14, (2.2±0.6)days, (3.4±0.8)days, (4.1±1.1)days, (5.7±1.4)days, 8.0(7.0, 9.0)days in the 453 patients without prolonged surgical duration, showing significant differences in operation time, volume of intraoperative blood loss (t=-20.46, Z=-3.32, P<0.05), and no significant difference in the number of lymph nodes dissected, time to postoperative first ambulation, time to postopera-tive anal exhaust, time to postoperative first intake of liquid diet, time to first intake of semi‑liquid diet, duration of postoperative hospital stay (t=1.87, -0.87, -0.16, 0.28, 0.03, Z=-1.45, P>0.05). (3) Complications in patients with prolonged surgical duration and without prolonged surgical duration. The overall incidence of complications, incidence of surgical complications (abdominal infection, anastomotic fistula, abdominal bleeding, incision‑related complications, intestinal obstruction, lymphatic fistula), incidence of medical complications (pulmonary infection, liver‑related complications) were 22.22%(18/81), 0, 0, 2.47%(2/81), 0, 8.64%(7/81), 1.23%(1/81), 12.35%(10/81), 1.23%(1/81) in the 81 patients with prolonged surgical duration, versus 13.47%(61/453), 2.65%(12/453), 0.44%(2/453), 1.77%(8/453), 0.44%(2/453), 3.31%(15/453), 0, 7.28%(33/453), 1.55%(7/453) in the 453 patients without prolonged surgical duration, showing a significant difference in the overall incidence of complications (χ²=4.18, P<0.05), and no significant difference in the incidence of abdo-minal infection, anastomotic fistula, abdominal bleeding, incision‑related complications, intestinal obstruction, lymphatic fistula, liver‑related complications (P>0.05). There was no significant difference in the incidence of pulmonary infection between them (χ²=2.38,P>0.05). (4) Analysis of risk factors influencing prolonged surgical duration. Results of univariate analysis showed that BMI ≥25 kg/m², tumor located in the lower stomach, clinical T3-T4a stage, clinical N1-N3 stage were correlated factors influencing prolonged surgical duration in Da Vinci robotic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer (odds ratio=1.88, 0.40, 6.24, 6.51, 3.08, 3.39, 17.15, 95% confidence interval as 1.03-3.42, 0.21-0.76, 1.40-27.76, 1.50-28.30, 1.43-6.60, 1.29-8.92, 4.84-60.74, P<0.05). Results of multivariate analysis showed that BMI ≥25 kg/m², clinical T3 stage, clinical N3 stage were independent risk factors influencing prolonged surgical duration in Da Vinci robotic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer (odds ratio=2.31, 4.97, 11.08, 95% confidence interval as 1.19-4.46, 1.05-23.55, 2.72-45.13, P<0.05). (5) Construction and evaluation of an artificial neural network predictive model for pro-longed surgical duration. The BMI, tumor location, clinical T staging, and clinical N staging were incorporated into a multilayer perceptron to construct an artificial neural network predictive model for prolonged surgical duration. Results of ROC curve showed that the AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value of the predictive model in the training dataset were 0.73 (95% confidence interval as 0.68-0.78), 91.4%, 68.1%, 94.8%, 65.3%, 95.4%. The above indicators of the predictive model in the validation dataset 0.72 (95% confidence interval as 0.65-0.79), 88.1%, 67.6%, 93.7%, 74.2%, 91.5%.
    Conclusions BMI ≥25 kg/m², clinical T3 stage, clinical N3 stage are independent risk factors influencing prolonged surgical duration in Da Vinci robotic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer. The artificial neural network predictive model con-structed based on BMI, tumor location, clinical T staging, and clinical N staging can effectively predict patients at high risk of prolonged surgical duration in Da Vinci robotic radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

     

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