1990—2019年中国人群肝癌流行病学趋势分析及预测

Analysis and prediction of the epidemiological trend of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019

  • 摘要: 目的 分析1990—2019年中国人群肝癌发病率和死亡率变化趋势,预测未来肝癌的疾 病发展趋势。方法 应用描述性流行病学方法。收集 1990—2019年华盛顿大学健康测量及评价研 究院全球疾病负担数据库(GBD)中国人群肝癌粗发病率及总发病数、粗死亡率及总死亡数、年龄性别 发病率及发病数、年龄性别死亡率及死亡数,采用2000年中国标准人口计算年龄标化率。观察指标: (1)1990—2019年中国人群肝癌发病和死亡情况。(2)1990—2019年中国人群肝癌年龄标化发病率和 死亡率变化趋势。(3)2020—2044年中国人群肝癌发病和死亡预测。计数资料以绝对数、百分率和比 值表示。采用Joinpoint(V.4.9.0.0)软件回归计算不同时段肝癌年龄标化发病率和死亡率的年变化率 (APC)、年平均变化率(AAPC)及其 95% 可信区间(95%CI)。采用 R 软件(V.4.1.1)Nordpred 包中的 年龄?时期?队列模型对 2020—2044 年中国人群肝癌发病和死亡情况进行预测。结果 (1)1990— 2019年中国人群肝癌发病和死亡情况:中国人群肝癌粗发病率从1990年的20.01/10万下降至2019年的 14.80/10万,年龄标化发病率从1990年的24.31/10万下降至2019年的9.71/10万。中国男性人群肝癌粗 发病率从1990年的27.88/10万下降至2019年的22.05/10万,年龄标化发病率从1990年的34.76/10万 下降至 2019年的 15.22/10万。中国女性人群肝癌粗发病率从 1990年的 11.63/10万下降至 2019年的 7.26/10万,年龄标化发病率从 1990年的 13.51/10万下降至 2019年的 4.29/10万。中国人群肝癌粗死 亡率从1990年的19.64/10万下降至2019年的13.20/10万,年龄标化死亡率从1990年的23.97/10万下 降至 2019 年的 8.44/10 万。中国男性人群肝癌粗死亡率从 1990 年的 27.03/10 万下降至 2019 年的 19.18/10万,年龄标化死亡率从 1990年的 34.10/10万下降至 2019年的 13.03/10万。中国女性人群肝 癌粗死亡率从1990年的11.78/10万下降至2019年的6.98/10万,年龄标化死亡率从1990年的13.64/10万 下降至 2019年的 3.97/10万。(2)1990—2019年中国人群肝癌年龄标化发病率和死亡率变化趋势:中 国人群肝癌年龄标化发病率趋势可分为5个时期,分别为1990—1996年、1996—2001年、2001—2005年、 2005—2010 年、2010—2019 年。5 个时期中国总人口年龄标化发病率的 APC 从 1.27%(95%CI 为 0.81%~1.73%,P<0.001)变为 1.12%(95%CI 为 0.91%~1.33%,P<0.001)、男性的 APC 从 1.68%(95%CI 为1.19%~2.17%,P<0.001)变为1.65%(95%CI为1.42%~1.87%,P<0.001),女性的APC从0.21%(95%CI 为?0.32%~0.75%,P=0.406)变为?0.14%(95%CI为?0.40%~0.11%,P=0.241)。中国人群肝癌年龄标化 死亡率趋势可分为 5 个时期,分别为 1990—1996 年、1996—2000 年、2000—2005 年、2005—2012 年、 2012—2019 年,5 个时期中国总人口年龄标化死亡率的 APC 从 1.47%(95%CI 为 0.74%~2.20%,P= 0.001)变为 1.34%(95%CI 为 0.78%~1.90%,P<0.001),男性的 APC 从 1.96%(95%CI 为 1.18%~2.75%, P<0.001)变为1.79%(95%CI为1.18%~2.41%,P<0.001),女性的APC从0.14%(95%CI为?0.54%~0.82%, P=0.670)变为0.48%(95%CI为0.02%~0.93%,P=0.041)。1990—2019年中国人群肝癌年龄标化发病率、 年龄标化死亡率的AAPC分别为?3.22%(95%CI为?3.41%~-3.03%)、-3.51%(95%CI为-3.82%~-3.19%),男性年龄标化发病率、年龄标化死亡率的 AAPC 分别为?2.90%(95%CI 为?3.10%~-2.71%)、-3.22% (95%CI为?3.57%~-2.88%),女性年龄标化发病率、年龄标化死亡率的AAPC分别为?3.96%(95%CI为 ?4.17%~-3.76%)、-4.13%(95%CI为?4.43%~-3.82%)。(3)2020—2044年中国人群肝癌发病和死亡预 测:中国人群肝癌年龄标化发病率将从2015—2019年的9.51/10万下降至2040—2044年的5.78/10万; 中国男性人群肝癌年龄标化发病率将从2015—2019年的14.84/10万下降至2040—2044年的9.75/10万; 中国女性人群肝癌年龄标化发病率将从2015—2019年4.28/10万下降至2040—2044年的1.88/10万。 中国人群肝癌年龄标化死亡率将从 2015—2019 年的 8.40/10 万下降至 2040—2044 年的 4.62/10 万; 中国男性人群肝癌年龄标化死亡率将从2015—2019年的12.91/10万下降至2040?2044年的7.59/10万; 中国女性人群肝癌年龄标化死亡率将从2015—2019年4.01/10万下降至2040—2044年的1.70/10万。 2020—2044 年,中国人群肝癌每年发病人数仍将稳定在 16 万人左右,死亡人数将稳定在 14 万人左 右。中国男性人群肝癌每年发病人数平均为12.85万,死亡人数平均为10.90万;中国女性人群肝癌每 年发病人数平均为 3.60万,死亡人数平均为 3.49万。结论 1990—2019年,中国人群肝癌发病率和 死亡率呈明显下降趋势;但2020—2044年,中国人群肝癌每年发病人数和死亡人数仍将超过10万。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze the changing trend of the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019, and predict the future development trend of liver cancer. Methods The descriptive epidemiologic method was conducted. Based on the Global Burden of Disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the crude incidence rate and total number, crude mortality rate and total number, age- and sex-specific incidence rate and number, age- and sex-specific mortality rate and number of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were collected. The age-standardized rate was calculated using the year 2000 China's standard population. Observation indicators: (1) the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (2) changing trend of the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (3) prediction of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020 ? 2044. Count data were described as absolute numbers, percentages and ratios. The Joinpoint V. 4.9.0.0 software was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC), average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in different time periods. The age-period-cohort model in the Nordpred package of R software (V.4.1.1) was used to predict the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020?2044. Results  (1) The incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019: the crude incidence rate and the agestandardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population decreased from 20.01/100,000 and 24.31/100,000 in 1990 to 14.80/100,000 and 9.71/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese male population decreased from 27.88/100,000 and 34.76/100,000 in 1990 to 22.05/100,000 and 15.22/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese female population decreased from 11.63/100,000 and 13.51/100,000 in 1990 to 7.26/100, 000 and 4.29/100, 000 in 2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the agestandardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population decreased from 19.64/100,000 and 23.97/100,000 in 1990 to 13.20/100,000 and 8.44/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese male population decreased from 27.03/100,000 and 34.10/100,000 in 1990 to 19.18/100,000 and 13.03/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese female population decreased from 11.78/100, 000 and 13.64/100, 000 in 1990 to 6.98/100,000 and 3.97/100,000 in 2019, respectively. (2) Changing trend of the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019: the trend of age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population could be divided into 5 periods, namely year 1990 to 1996, year 1996 to 2001, year 2001 to 2005, year 2005 to 2010 and year 2010 to 2019. In these 5 periods, the APC of age-standardized incidence rate changed from 1.27%(95%CI as 0.81% to 1.73%, P<0.001) to 1.12%(95%CI as 0.91% to 1.33%, P<0.001) of the total Chinese population, from 1.68%(95%CI as 1.19% to 2.17%, P<0.001) to 1.65%(95%CI as 1.42% to 1.87%, P<0.001) of the Chinese male population and from 0.21%(95%CI as ? 0.32 % to 0.75%, P=0.406) to ?0.14%(95%CI as ?0.40% to 0.11%, P=0.241) of the Chinese female population, respectively. The trend of age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population could be divided into 5 periods, namely year 1990 to 1996, year 1996 to 2000, year 2000 to 2005, year 2005 to 2012 and year 2012 to 2019. In these 5 periods, the APC of age-standardized mortality rate changed from 1.47%(95%CI as 0.74% to 2.20%, P=0.001) to 1.34%(95%CI as 0.78% to 1.90%, P<0.001) of the total Chinese population, from 1.96%(95%CI as 1.18% to 2.75%, P<0.001) to 1.79% (95%CI as 1.18% to 2.41%, P<0.001) of the Chinese male population and from 0.14%(95%CI as ? 0.54% to 0.82%, P=0.670 ) to 0.48%(95%CI as 0.02% to 0.93%, P=0.041) of the Chinese female population, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of age-standardized incidence and agestandardized mortality rates of liver cancer were ?3.22%(95%CI as ?3.41% to ?3.03%) and ?3.51% (95%CI as ?3.82% to ?3.19%) in the Chinese population, ?2.90%(95%CI as ?3.10% to ?2.71%) and ?3.22%(95%CI as ?3.57% to ?2.88%) in the Chinese male population, ?3.96%(95%CI as ?4.17% to ?3.76%) and ?4.13%(95%CI as ?4.43% to ?3.82%) in the Chinese female population, respectively. (3) Prediction of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020? 2044: the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer would decrease from 9.51/100,000 in 2015? 2019 to 5.78/100,000 in 2040?2044 in the Chinese population, from 14.84/100,000 in 2015?2019 to 9.75/100,000 in 2040?2044 in the Chinese male population and from 4.28/100,000 in 2015? 2019 to 1.88/100, 000 in 2040 ? 2044 in the Chinese female population, respectively. The agestandardized mortality rate of liver cancer would decrease from 8.40/100,000 in 2015?2019 to 4.62/100,000 in 2040?2044 in the Chinese population, from 12.91/100,000 in 2015?2019 to 7.59/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese male population and from 4.01/100,000 in 2015?2019 to 1.70/100,000 in 2040?2044 in the Chinese female population, respectively. The incidence number and mortality number of liver cancer from 2020 to 2044 would remain stable at around 160,000 per year and 140,000 per year in the Chinese population, 128,500 per year and 109,000 per year in the Chinese male population, 36, 000 per year and 34, 900 per year in the Chinese female population, respectively. Conclusion  The incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population show a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2019, and the incidence number and mortality number of liver cancer in the Chinese population will remain stable above 100,000 during 2020?2044.

     

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