Abstract:
Objective To analyze the changing trend of the incidence and mortality rates
of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019, and predict the future development
trend of liver cancer.
Methods The descriptive epidemiologic method was conducted. Based on the
Global Burden of Disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University
of Washington, the crude incidence rate and total number, crude mortality rate and total number,
age- and sex-specific incidence rate and number, age- and sex-specific mortality rate and number of
liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were collected. The age-standardized rate
was calculated using the year 2000 China's standard population. Observation indicators: (1) the
incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (2) changing
trend of the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population
from 1990 to 2019; (3) prediction of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese
population during 2020 ? 2044. Count data were described as absolute numbers, percentages and
ratios. The Joinpoint V. 4.9.0.0 software was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC),
average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) of age-standardized
incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in different time periods. The age-period-cohort model
in the Nordpred package of R software (V.4.1.1) was used to predict the incidence and mortality of
liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020?2044.
Results (1) The incidence and mortality
of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019: the crude incidence rate and the agestandardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population decreased from 20.01/100,000
and 24.31/100,000 in 1990 to 14.80/100,000 and 9.71/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude
incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese male population decreased from 27.88/100,000 and 34.76/100,000 in 1990 to 22.05/100,000 and 15.22/100,000
in 2019, respectively. The crude incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver
cancer in the Chinese female population decreased from 11.63/100,000 and 13.51/100,000 in 1990
to 7.26/100, 000 and 4.29/100, 000 in 2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the agestandardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population decreased from 19.64/100,000
and 23.97/100,000 in 1990 to 13.20/100,000 and 8.44/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude
mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese male population
decreased from 27.03/100,000 and 34.10/100,000 in 1990 to 19.18/100,000 and 13.03/100,000 in
2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese female population decreased from 11.78/100, 000 and 13.64/100, 000 in 1990 to
6.98/100,000 and 3.97/100,000 in 2019, respectively. (2) Changing trend of the age-standardized
incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019: the trend
of age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population could be divided into
5 periods, namely year 1990 to 1996, year 1996 to 2001, year 2001 to 2005, year 2005 to 2010 and
year 2010 to 2019. In these 5 periods, the APC of age-standardized incidence rate changed from
1.27%(95%CI as 0.81% to 1.73%, P<0.001) to 1.12%(95%CI as 0.91% to 1.33%, P<0.001) of the
total Chinese population, from 1.68%(95%CI as 1.19% to 2.17%, P<0.001) to 1.65%(95%CI as
1.42% to 1.87%, P<0.001) of the Chinese male population and from 0.21%(95%CI as ? 0.32 % to
0.75%, P=0.406) to ?0.14%(95%CI as ?0.40% to 0.11%, P=0.241) of the Chinese female population,
respectively. The trend of age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population
could be divided into 5 periods, namely year 1990 to 1996, year 1996 to 2000, year 2000 to 2005,
year 2005 to 2012 and year 2012 to 2019. In these 5 periods, the APC of age-standardized mortality
rate changed from 1.47%(95%CI as 0.74% to 2.20%, P=0.001) to 1.34%(95%CI as 0.78% to 1.90%,
P<0.001) of the total Chinese population, from 1.96%(95%CI as 1.18% to 2.75%, P<0.001) to 1.79%
(95%CI as 1.18% to 2.41%, P<0.001) of the Chinese male population and from 0.14%(95%CI as
? 0.54% to 0.82%, P=0.670 ) to 0.48%(95%CI as 0.02% to 0.93%, P=0.041) of the Chinese female
population, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of age-standardized incidence and agestandardized mortality rates of liver cancer were ?3.22%(95%CI as ?3.41% to ?3.03%) and ?3.51%
(95%CI as ?3.82% to ?3.19%) in the Chinese population, ?2.90%(95%CI as ?3.10% to ?2.71%) and
?3.22%(95%CI as ?3.57% to ?2.88%) in the Chinese male population, ?3.96%(95%CI as ?4.17% to
?3.76%) and ?4.13%(95%CI as ?4.43% to ?3.82%) in the Chinese female population, respectively.
(3) Prediction of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020?
2044: the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer would decrease from 9.51/100,000 in 2015?
2019 to 5.78/100,000 in 2040?2044 in the Chinese population, from 14.84/100,000 in 2015?2019
to 9.75/100,000 in 2040?2044 in the Chinese male population and from 4.28/100,000 in 2015?
2019 to 1.88/100, 000 in 2040 ? 2044 in the Chinese female population, respectively. The agestandardized mortality rate of liver cancer would decrease from 8.40/100,000 in 2015?2019
to 4.62/100,000 in 2040?2044 in the Chinese population, from 12.91/100,000 in 2015?2019 to
7.59/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese male population and from 4.01/100,000 in 2015?2019
to 1.70/100,000 in 2040?2044 in the Chinese female population, respectively. The incidence number
and mortality number of liver cancer from 2020 to 2044 would remain stable at around 160,000 per
year and 140,000 per year in the Chinese population, 128,500 per year and 109,000 per year in the
Chinese male population, 36, 000 per year and 34, 900 per year in the Chinese female population,
respectively.
Conclusion The incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population show a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2019, and the incidence number and mortality
number of liver cancer in the Chinese population will remain stable above 100,000 during 2020?2044.